ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay recently had the Bills taking Notre Dame WR Michael Floyd with the 10th overall pick in his latest mock draft this week, but he feels the value in the middle of round one this year is very mixed. Having a top 10 pick is usually a great opportunity to get a top flight talent, but in McShay’s mind in this particular draft it puts the Bills in a difficult position.
“When you look at the Bills, yes, offensive tackle is a huge need, but are they going to pull the trigger that high? That’s the problem,” said McShay Friday on a national conference call. “Anyone can sit here and say they can trade back. I don’t know that they can. I don’t know that anyone wants to move up to number 10 because my thought about this draft is what you get a 9, 10, 11, 12 is what you’re going to get at 17, 18, 19, 20. I think there’s a drop-off, but there’s a lot of depth in the middle of the first round.”
Knowing NFL clubs would have to pay a respectable price to move into the top 10, weighing the cost to do so against the marginal drop-off in talent makes it unlikely that teams picking in the teens or early 20’s would do so unless some major prospect slips as McShay sees it.
In fact McShay in picking Floyd for the Bills didn’t like the choice and agonized over it, further convincing him that Buffalo could have a tough choice at 10 knowing their positional needs, in his mind, don’t fit the value of prospects on the board at those positions.
“I gave them Michael Floyd the receiver from Notre Dame and I hated it at the time and I struggled with it. It held me up for about a half hour before I decided to just plug him in there. I don’t know that they want to do that. It’s no more a reach to take Floyd at 10 than it is to take (Jonathan) Martin or any of the other offensive tackles. For a team that’s done such a great job drafting and in free agency the past couple of years, they’re in a tough spot. I’m intrigued to see how they get out of it and what they’re able to get from that number 10 pick.”
Of course how the Bills might have players valued could very well be completely different from analysts like McShay and Kiper and be pretty happy with the value they feel will be there when they’re on the clock. Only the Bills personnel department knows for sure.
